The Education Behind Our Guesses

AA

A recap of our picks:

Best Picture: Boyhood

Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne

Best Actress: Julianne Moore

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette

While we’re predicting the winners of the top six categories only first three are shaping up to be close calls. As such, we’ve focused our data hunt on those races.

Awards Season

The Guild awards are typically broken up into the various sections that make up entertainment. They cover a lot of ground and have proven throughout the years to be a decent predictor of the Academy Award winners.

In addition, we looked at the three other main awards shows of the season; the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, and the BAFTAs. The Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice awards have traditionally fallen in line with what the Academy eventually decides. The BAFTAs, while an ocean away (and further at times), have lined up surprisingly well with the Oscars this year.

Knowing Your History

In the past, the best picture winners of the Producers and Directors Guilds have had fairly good success at the Academy Awards. Another good indicator for Best Picture is seeing how many total nominations each film receives. In the 66 year history of the Oscars, the median number of nominations for the winning film is nine against six for the losers.

So why’d we choose Boyhood? It’s all about the Editing. See, Birdman failed to get a Best Editing nomination in this year’s Oscars. Not since 1980 has a film not nominated for Editing won Best Picture. Remember the outcry over Brokeback Mountain not winning in 2006? Check the Editing nominations and that might just explain Crash. 

What Are Others Saying?

We’re certainly not the only ones taking a crack at guessing the winners. Across the internet film experts have slotted in their picks. While they aren’t the end-all-be-all, it’s always good to see how our picks stack up.

A break-down of our data:

Oscar Data V2 a.nexidia

{Photo Credit: Image of the Academy Awards from Davidlohr Bueso}

Categories: Best Practices